2008年6月13日星期五

The rise of the Chinese Motorcycle/ATV business….

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In the middle of February, I spent a busy weekend in Indianapolis at the Motorcycle Dealer Expo. The Dealer Expo is a huge convention held at the Indianapolis convention center. The event fills the whole expo center and even the attached football stadium floor where the Colts play and two of the hotels next door.

Walking out into the RCA Dome’s field was a surreal experience. The field where all American football is played, row after row of Chinese motorcycles and ATV’s were setup for display. ATV’s, especially side by side rhino type were heavily represented on the stadium floor. Surrounding these products was A large staff of Chinese and American salesmen, helping the hoard of dealers looking at all the products This was not 2 or 3 companies, but well over 30 to 40 companies selling products to eager American dealers.

Taking a step back, my wife commented how Middle America these dealers appeared. We are not talking about Big City and Anti-American Californians looking at these vehicles. It was the middle America, walmart shopping, Gun Loving, God Fearing, Flag Waving, America first stereotype that you see in all 50 states. Many a person discussing these vehicles, were proudly sporting a mullet, wearing blue jeans and even wearing vests that proclaimed how great the USA is. All the while, these people were actively shopping which Chinese ATV to bring back home and sell to people just like them.

I am sure I am stereotyping these people. And I should be thought not to make these judgments on just how a person looks. But on the surface to me, you still you can not get away the fact that the world have changed. The action on the field seemed as if this was the great gold rush of 1849 and everyone needed to get into the action. Vendor space after vendor space packed indistinguishable power sports vehicles in generic colors of Black, Red, Yellow and Blue. Seats were wrapped in plastic more related to what covers a child’s toy than a motor vehicle.

As I wondered around the field, the surface quality of these vehicles were amazing. On the surface these ATV’s and Motorcycles look to have all the right stuff. Knobby tires, piggyback shocks, chromed control arms, fancy graphics and even a head lamp or two. Looking closer the quality seems to be just on the surface and the parts just were not the right stuff after all Tire brands were ones that I have never heard of before, cheng shin appears to be a premium brand that is few and far between. Shocks with anodized body’s in lovely colors, paired with colored springs and fittings and sporting names close but not exactly the same as Fox and Ohlins. The fancy graphics on the bodywork, covered poorly made plastic that many times looked even cheaper on the inside than the outside. No plastic polish was going to rise a shine from these parts.

Considering all of this, the Walmart generation just kept coming and coming. The people spent time asking questions, making orders and discussing their hopes and dreams about selling these products. The focus was on how they could turn these Chinese products into big profits Hardly a word was spoken about safety, quality or long term viability of these products. The focus was on how easy it was to ship these items in cardboard crates, how to market the products and how much money could be made. No doubt, this is the American dream to find that great product and provide it at a great price.

In the fore front we find Americana salesmen making promises and claims about the Chinese products to the walmart generation who came to buy. In the background stood the Chinese makers and their support staff, many of whom looked disconnected from the whole event. All the while “exotic” dancer types were nearly undressed were signing autographs and taking pictures with the walmart generation. The plastic sales people and plastic eye candy matched the products being sold. Good looking at first glance, but maybe not as deep as we desire in the long term.

Taking a step back, I wondered how much time was devoted to designing these products. They looked like they had the right stuff. But with 30+ companies in attendance, did every company take time to investigate their products. Did they considerer how safe they were, how well they preformed, how durable they would be? From my removed point of view, it is hard for me to see that. I saw the same ATV sold with knobby tires, slicks, grooved “rounded” tires that looked like mini 330 rear motorcycle tires and even a ATV with 17” motocross wheels and spokes. To many differences on one platform to have been considered carefully in my limited judgment I still can not believe that 17” motocross rims with spokes would stand up to the side loads an ATV puts out.

We are at a crossroads in America While we wave the flag proudly and claim our desire for USA #1, in the background we do something different. We embrace the idol of discount prices and a disposable lifestyle. Quality is not as important that just good enough and throw it away when it brakes. If it looks like what we need right now, then that is all we need.

To be honest I don’t know how much of a leg I have to stand on with this. I work foreign national company, I have never driven a vehicle made by a Big 3 car company. In addition I have never owned an American motorcycle, or an Americana TV. I like saving money by going to CostCo to shop for discount products. I buy many a tool at “Harbor Freight”, knowing full well the quality is not the same as many tools at Sears. But I can not help myself as the tool is only 25% the price and I plan to use it once or twice in my life.

But I guess I feel ok, because I don’t wave the American flag and wrap myself in the glory of God and Country. But I think that might be short sighted and self centered of me. Could I be part of the problem that propels this thinking forward.

Still it is fascinating how the walmart generation is embracing the Chinese motorsports revolution. I wonder what their motive is? Do they believe this is a ground floor opportunity? Or is it something less noble… the chasing of immediate dollars today.

2008年6月11日星期三

Orbiting the blogosphere with Rob Coppinger

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? ESA in favour of commercial lunar communications Main

Does this mean non-US ISS downmass commercial services?
I only had 15min and had pushed on the issue of non-US commercial resupply services for the International Space Station if the contractors didn't deliver so I just left the issue when NASA’s ISS programme’s transport office manager, Kathryn Lueders finally said: “The plan is secure all upmass through domestic services;" but the answer perhaps begs more questions?

credit: NASA

secure all upmass through domestic services - but the ISS resupply request for proposals letter also has 34,500kg (75,900lb) of downmass required

Of that 8,000kg is downmass that has to be returned. The other 26,500kg can just burn up on reentry. From calendar year 2011 that trash is 5,000kg a year

My theory is that, NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services/ISS commercial resupply will not deliver in time all the logistical needs of the station, so when will NASA have to look around for replacement up/downmass capability?

For calender year 2010 NASA is expecting a need for 2,700kg of upmass, 500kg of downmass to be returned and 1,500kg of trash. Well an extra Russian Khrunichev Space Center expendable Progress could do this, OK maybe not 2,700kg but almost that much while admittedly it could not transport the 500kg of returned downmass. But then, no ISS commercial resupply with a heatshield and nothing is being returned intact

If I remember correctly there was quite a bit of build up on ISS during the grounding of the Shuttle fleet after the Columbia disaster but that was only for two crew, not six; looks like we'll see that added storage need onboard again

When I asked Lueders how they calculated the resupply demand that was ISS logistics shortfall she said it was the difference between what was needed and the total capability of the barter agreement supply of European Space Agency Automated Transfer Vehicles (ATV), Japan's H-II Transfer Vehicles and Progress and Russia's Soyuz plus the planned purchases for Russia vehicles between now and 2011

But what's the problem with extra Progress in the first six to possibly 18 months of commercial resupplies planned in-service date - I can't remember if the Iran Syria noproliferation act waiver NASA has is up to and including 2011?

In 2011 and 2012 the lack of commercial resupply or a limited service is not going to help as "internal" upmass is 4,800kg and external upmass is 1,800kg with returned downmass tripling and trash downmass being 5,000kg in both years

Unless NASA considers ATV or a "last minute" change to Russian Progress cargo vehicle purchases commercial resupply will have to have demonstrated a good capability otherwise that station is going to get very cramped - and realistically both ESA and Roskosmos are going to have to give their industry two-years notice to comfortably deliver an assured service

So I wonder, when in 2009 will NASA know its got a potential problem with its contractors, having placed the contract(s) on 28 November this year?

Thinking through the timing and what I know of space programes' industrial needs I'd say mid-2009 is going to have to be a decision date for ordering extra Progress at least

Come 2011 the 5,000kg of trash is going to become a lot more problematic. It's not an amount you can just shovel around the ISS interior

But it is easily disposed of by an ATV, which can carry up to 7,600kg of nicely packaged dry cargo

In my humble opinion while NASA marches on believing it can find commercial resupply domestically it should really begin to think about back-up options and if Russia is too tricky with the US legal situation then western Europe's ATV, now a proven resupply capability, should be the first port of call - pun intended

Then again, COTS and commercial resupply might go swimmingly well...

ATV Offroad Fury 4, le test express sur PlayStatio

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La presse spécialisée fait régulièrement ses choux gras du retard que mettent certains jeux japonais à parvenir jusqu'en Europe mais on entend moins parler des jeux destinés au marché américain qui rament avant d'arriver chez nous. Voilà pourtant un bel exemple de lenteur avec cet ATV Offroad Fury 4, puisque sa version américaine est sortie fin 2006, soit presque un an et demi avant sa sortie fran?aise. Probablement le temps qu'il fallait aux quads pour aller chercher du renfort auprès de leurs amis tout-terrain.




Afin de suivre l'engouement des joueurs pour les sports mécaniques extrêmes, il est de bon ton de mélanger les genres et surtout les véhicules. En voici une nouvelle preuve avec ATV Offroad Fury 4. Aux c?tés des quads auxquels elle se consacrait exclusivement jusqu'à présent, la licence accueille désormais sur ses pistes terreuses de nouvelles motos de cross, des voitures 4x4 et des buggies. Comme on pouvait s'y attendre dans un jeu typé arcade comme celui-ci, les nouveaux arrivants ne bouleversent pas le gameplay traditionnel, reposant sur le trio vitesse, dérapage, et gestion des sauts. Pour tout dire, les gros quatre roues apportent surtout plus de lourdeur et de drift dans la conduite. Ils sont par ailleurs incapables de frimer en réalisant des figures, c'est bien logique. Leur moyen à eux d'accumuler des points de style, c'est de déraper et d'exécuter les sauts les plus longs possibles. Quant aux motos, elles se pilotent à peu près comme les quads, en répartissant le poids du pilote et en donnant un coup de rein à la machine pour s'envoler lors des sauts. A l'atterrissage, on prend plaisir à tester leurs pneus en dérapant à chaque virage, ou pas, selon la surface. C'est la base du pilotage sur terrain chaotique mais c'est une bonne base, à la fois facétieuse et facile d'accès.


Passée la bonne surprise, tout ce qui gravite autour des nouveaux véhicules est assez similaire aux précédents opus, à commencer par la réalisation. De ce point de vue, ATV Offroad Fury 4 peut se vanter d'être l'un des titres qui reproduit le plus fidèlement la conduite tout-terrain mais il conserve quelques tares arcades un peu trop flagrantes. Par exemple, la direction ultra-réactive des bolides s'accompagne de mouvements un peu trop convulsifs des pilotes et de réceptions rigides qui confèrent une certaine raideur à l'animation de l'ensemble. En ce qui concerne les décors, on remarque souvent que la qualité des environnements et des textures de premier plan a été sacrifiée au profit d'un champ de vision remarquablement lointain. Si c'est un choix, il n'est pas si mauvais car cela crée une agréable sensation de liberté au guidon.


Paradoxalement, les nouveaux véhicules n'apportent pas directement le renouveau dont la série avait besoin après trois épisodes. Peut-être parce que des titres comme Mx vs ATV exploitent le créneau du cross over depuis quelques années déjà. En revanche, les courses en pleine nature qui les accompagnent offrent un bon bol d'air frais au joueur facilement ennuyé par les interminables tours de pistes des circuits de Supercross, les fameux avec les bosses qui tournent en rond. A ce propos, il faut noter que rien n'est gratuit dans ATV Offroad et qu'une bonne partie du contenu est verrouillé de tous les c?tés en début de partie. Que les néophytes se rassurent, l'Intelligence Artificielle subit des passages à vide et ils pourront rapidement débloquer des épreuves de Rally cross sur de vastes circuits idéaux pour les gros véhicules, de freestyle ou de P2P, une sorte de course d'orientation très sympathique, avec plusieurs chemins pour atteindre la ligne d'arrivée et un petit radar en guise de guide de voyage. Si l'on ajoute à cela des mini-jeux et un éditeur de pistes anecdotique mais sympathique, on obtient une durée de vie très convaincante pour un titre de ce genre.

Woman Hurt In ATV Crash In Clinton

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The incident happened at about 8:30 p.m. near Townline Road and O'Reilly Road near the village of Clinton when two ATVs collided, WISC-TV reported.

The driver and passenger on an ATV were thrown as it rolled over. The passenger, Danielle Waltman, 23, of Clinton, is listed in critical condition.

The driver, Richard Hendricks, 26, of Beloit is also hospitalized and faces charges of causing great bodily harm by intoxicated use of an ATV.

STATE POLICE KICK-OFF ATV PATROL PILOT PROGRAM

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PORT NORRIS-- Residents and officials in Port Norris have voiced concern over the numerous ATV fatalities and unsafe riding practices that have occurred throughout the county. Port Norris State Police hope an ATV Safety Pilot Program they have come up with, will be the answer to the growing problem. Rural Port Norris is about 300 square miles, with wildlife acres, farmland and sandpits, that appeal to ATV riders. "We've had numerous ATV accidents everywhere from minor to fatal," said Trooper Jack Blizzard, New Jersey State Police, Port Norris. So for the next six months, State Police will be on special detail...making rounds on their newly acquired all terrain vehicles in areas where no patrol cruiser has gone before. "This is no way shape or form an assault on people that own or ride ATV's, this is an effort that we're going to put forth to educate the individuals how to legally ride ATV's versus illegally riding to promote safety and the proper respect for nature," said Blizzard. "We're out here to assist, we're out here to prevent the problem before it happens," said Lieutenant John Peacock, New Jersey State Police, Port Norris. The ATV pilot program not only educates riders but also allows State Troopers to access more ground in remote areas, keeping wildlife and visitors safe. "We have thousands of acres of state game land, thousands of acres of natural trust land which is land that's preserved for natural habitat and its very important that we are out there educating individuals as to the importance in our sensitive areas," said Blizzard. "Because we're such a rural area, we have traditional Alzheimer's patients walk off, we have young people lost in the woods," said Peacock. And now, thanks to the ATV's, Troopers will be able to help out in more ways than one to help the pilot program take off. "Hopefully it will have the positive impact with the local people and local community that we're looking to do," said Peacock. State Police hope to expand this ATV program throughout all of Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May, Gloucester, Salem and Camden counties in the near future.

Jules Verne ATV docked with ISS

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The astronauts on board the International Space Station performed final ATV hatch opening at around 10:30 CEST (08:30 UT) this morning, clearing the way for the crew to start unloading Jules Verne’s cargo delivery.

The hatches between ISS and Jules Verne ATV were opened for the first time at around 12:15 CEST (10:15 UT) on Friday, at which time the crew briefly entered ATV to place an air filtering device. The so-called ‘air scrubber’ was left to run for 8 hours removing any unwanted gasses or small particles of debris that may be floating around.

Immediately after hatch reopening this morning, the lights inside Jules Verne ATV were turned on and the air scrubber dismounted. The crew will now install portable breathing apparatus, a fire extinguisher and the handrails which help the astronauts move around inside ATV. A flexible hose will also be installed to provide additional ventilation. Once all of these items are in place, ATV is ready for full, regular operations.

ATV also brings a special gift – a playlist of music selected by Norwegian teenager Therese Miljeteig, the winner of ESA’s ATV competition to suggest 10 songs to inspire the astronauts.

Jules Verne will remain attached to as a 48 m3 pressurised and integral part of the complex until early August. When required, ATV will boost the Station’s orbit to overcome the effects of residual atmospheric drag. At the end of its mission, Jules Verne ATV will burn up in a controlled reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere, and in the process, it will eliminate 6.3 tonnes of waste material no longer needed on the Station and stored over 4 months in the ATV.

Putting your ATV hard drive image on a CD

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I've figured out a way to compress a 40 gig ATV disk image down to 444 mb, small enough to fit on a CD. Here's what I did.

1. Do a factory restore of the Apple TV. This deletes all the content on the hard drive. Unplug the ATV and pull its hard drive.

2. Connect the hard drive to a Mac by any number of means. I use a universal drive adapter that connects the drive by USB. Two partitions should mount: OSBoot and Media.

3. Launch Disk Utility. Click on the OSBoot partition and erase the free space using the one-pass zero write. This puts a zero on every unused byte of the partion. For OSBoot, it'll only take a couple of minutes. Next, do the same with Media partition. This will take about 30 minutes. At this point, all the unused bytes are now zeros.

4. Use the dd command in terminal to image your ATV's disk to your computer's internal hard drive. You'll need 38 gigs of free space (or about 150 gigs if you have a 160 gig ATV drive). The directions for this can be found here. A 40 gig drive takes about 2 hours by USB. A bit faster if it's Firewire.

5. If you don't already have Stuffit, download it and use it to compress the ATV drive image. Since you made all of the unused space on the hard drive zeros, Stuffit will be able to compress it about 90% (40 gigs down to 450 megs). This took about 2 hours on my 1.66 core duo mini.

6. When you need it, simply unstuff it (make sure you have 40 gigs of hard drive space available!). It took about half an hour to unstuff on my machine and the last 15 minutes I had the spinning ball. Just let it run.

7. You can now use dd to put it back to a hard drive. If you put it on a drive larger than 40 gigs, you can use iPartition to increase Media's size to the hard drive you put the image on.

This will also work with a 160 gig ATV, but it'll take longer to zero the Media partition, read the drive for imaging, and to compress/decompress it. However, I suspect you could still put the compressed image on a CD.